Predictions Based On British Open Interviews

Posted by John

July 14, 2010

I watched Open interviews last night at length, and while that certaily isn’t enough to predict a winner, I think it does give some insight into who might just be ready. Here’s what I saw:

Tiger is probably the most motivated. He needs a win to announce he’s back. A win in a major and at St. Andrews would add 10 exclamation points to that. However…you can tell Tiger is not happy and has a lot on his mind. It certaily feels like his marriage is weighing heavily. He still is uncomfortable with some questions. Phil Mickelson isn’t in his shoes, but Phil has learned he’s only a golfer, not a political candidate, and doesn’t have to answer everything – and you can do it with some humor. I don’t think Tiger knows who he is yet and that will handicap him. It makes me nervous that he’s changed putters for the first time in over a decade. In his favor, he’s Tiger, he’s won at St. Andrews twice, the course favors long hitters off the tee and he’s a terrific iron player. Bottom line, he can do it, but he’s going to have to find a zone that takes him away from his personal life for the next 4 days.

I like Phil’s chances. His length is a great advantage at St. Andrews and he knows it. He’s confident and relaxed. It would be a great win for him, but it’s not a ‘need to have’ win like it is for Tiger, so he’s under less pressure. If the good Phil shows up and he doesn’t get thrown off course by the weather, he could be holding the Claret Jug on Sunday.

Ernie could win, but he just doesn’t project that he’s in the right place mentally. He’s playing pretty well, but something happened to him since his great start early in the year. At the US Open he was in contention at the last, but his putting showed no conviction. It’s almost as if he has second thoughts about the price he has to pay at his age to be on the road away from home. You never know what can happen to a player once they strike the first shot, but Ernie needs an attitude uplift if he’s going to win this Major.

Where is Padraig Harrington’s game? He’s played some good golf of late, but we keep waiting for the great golf that you expect from a 3-time major winner. One of the analysts said that Harrington needs to be playing against the odds to win, to be in a place where no one thinks he has a chance. Then he rises up to prove they are wrong. That would certainly explain a lot. Maybe if he gets the idea that the golf writers think he’s lost it, he’ll get motivated. I like that he’s relaxed and talks about the game as if he was a little kid having a ball, enjoying every tough shot as a fun challenge. That’s the kind of attitude you need on a testy links course so you don’t get intimidated. I say he’s certainly in the hunt.

Earlier in the year I felt almost certain that Lee Westwood would win the British Open. So many things came together in his game and with his confidence. What I saw during his press conference was a low affect, sad and almost beaten down guy. He’s got a problem with a ruptured muscle in his ankle. Supposedly it only hurts after he’s made contact. My question, is it really that bad that it will take him out of it, or is this the wiley Lee Westwood’s way of trying to psyche-out the competition. If yesterday was mainly an act, then I like his chances, but if it accurately reflected his mindset then this isn’t going to be his first major.

I did see a little bit of Tom Watson this morning and he still has to be considered a serious contender. He says his ball-striking isn’t where it was a year ago, but feels it could come around by Thursday. He was very relaxed and seemed to be enjoying everything about being in Scotland and playing in another major at 60. If he has a good round on Thursday the adrenaline is going to flow and the rest of the field better not forget about him. The great thing is he knows that we know he has a chance and it really adds excitement to the event.

Those are the players I’ve heard speak so far and here’s the order I’d rank them in:

Phil Mickelson, Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington, Tom Watson, Ernie Els and Lee Westwood.

Now there are a whole slew of excellent players this year who could win, but they haven’t been interviewed yet. I think that no tournaments test a player’s mental stamina more than the US and British Opens. And, when the whether is wet and windy as it’s supposed to be in St. Andrews this year, this may be the toughest mental test in all of golf. I’m really hoping for some high drama and great golf over the next 4 days!