U.S. Open Favorite

Posted by John

June 17, 2009

bethpage warning U.S. Open Favorite
Who might win at Bethpage Black, besides Tiger that is. If he plays in any tournament he’s favored, but after his performance at Memorial, the bookies have all but given him the trophy.

So far, Tiger’s win percentage at U.S. Opens is about 25% so there’s still a good chance that someone else could take the trophy this year. I’m with those who believe it’s the hardest golf tournament to win most years. Of course it has a top field. Then there’s the fact that it’s played on a different course each year. So far I’d say it’s tied with the British Open. The clincher is the demanding setup of Open courses for which the USGA is famous. There are those times when the wind blows on the Scottish links courses that make them as hard as any course on earth, but that’s the exception more than the rule these days. Year over year, the U.S. Open is the toughest major.

To win a U.S. Open you have to drive the ball in the fairway. If you don’t do that, you might as well not even tee it up. You’ve also got to be able to hit chips from the 6 inch rough around the greens, which sometimes is more an act of faith than skill. You can’t get rattled with bogies. And you’ve got to be a grinder. Driving gets you in with the contenders, putting is what determines the winner. The greens at Bethpage will be like marble table tops, even if it rains.

So who fits the bill? Very few, I’m afraid. There are players at the beginning of the year who looked like they had a chance, but they never got it going. Include in that group Kim, Harrington, Donald, Garcia, Rose, Mahan, Weir, and Cink.

Then there are the group of guys who have won a little, but seemed to have run out of gas. That includes Ogilvy, Perry, Watney, Goosen, O’Hair, Stenson and Sabbatini. Geoff Ogilvy should be a serious contender, but he seems to disappear months at a time. Will he re-emerge on Long Island?

Let’s not forget Angel Cabrera, the Masters winner. He can play anywhere, he can win under pressure and he won the Open at as hard a course as there is in the world; Oakmont. But he’s streaky. He can be great or disappear way back in the pack. If he plays well Thursday and Friday he could pull it off, but I just don’t see him winning two majors in one year. Sorry Angel.

There’s the group of straight shooters that seems to always be near the top week after week and who play very controlled games. That includes Furyk and Stricker. Furyk will probably be in the top 10, but his lack of distance will keep make it nearly impossible for him at a wet Bethpage.

Paul Casey could get it done. He has the game, but he hasn’t shown he can hold it together in a major. Don’t be surprised if he goes deep this year. I still think he needs more seasoning.

Phil is always a threat – or a major disappointment. He’s probably got too many other things on his mind, buy you never know. If he can get through Thursday and Friday and be in the top 7 or 8, then emotion will be in his favor. The question is, can he avoid the big number holes that have plagued him in Opens past?

I think Harrington will win a U.S. Open, but he hasn’t finished retooling his game yet. He’s more of threat at the British Open in July.

Which brings me to my dark horse pick – Zach Johnson. He’s probably not long enough, but he is proving he’s no fluke. His game has been steady eddy so far in ’09. He can win under pressure. He’s shown he takes winning seriously with steady improvement in all facets of his game. And he has a certain unshakeable air about him. The tougher Bethpage plays, the better I think his chances are.

I can hardly wait until tomorrow!