2012 Tour Predictions

Francis & Eddie 1913 US Open

Is there anything that can be predicted about a pro golf season with much certainty? Not really, such is the nature of the game. One thing I do feel certain about, Tiger will win at least one major in 2012 – if he’s healthy! After that, how will things pan out?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rory McIlroy win multiple times. He has the tools to be great, but does he have the intangibles to put him with the golfers who win more than 6 majors in the course of their careers? It takes more than great skill, history has taught us that if nothing else. He’s young at only 22, worth millions with millions more to come and dating famous women. That could distract anyone.

Talking about Irish golfers, how about Padraig Harrington, Graeme McDowell and Darren Clarke? Ireland and Northern Ireland have produced some great golf talent, but they tend to be streaky players. Darren is getting a bit long in the tooth, Paddy seems to have played himself out and Graeme? I don’t know. He was terrific at Pebble Beach in 2010. It’s true that many pros drop off after their first major, but he seems to all but have disappeared. He’ll win, but it’s no given that he’ll ever raise another major trophy.

Luke Donald is another story. He was the money winner in both the U.S. and Europe. That’s a feat that even Tiger hasn’t accomplished. He’s not long, but get him in sight of the green and he’s deadly. Apparently he had something to prove to the world in 2011. Does he have the fire to go after a string of majors? If not, then expect him to dial it back a notch and content himself with painting pictures and selling wine.

If you look at the names on the European Money List after Luke and Rory, you’ll find the likes of Martin Kaymer, Charl Schwartzel, Lee Westwood, Alvaro Quiros and, hold your hat, Sergio Garcia in 8th place. Kaymer will continue to win every year. Why, because he’s just like Bernhard Langer. The Germans may not be flashy, but they’re good, consistent and persistent. He will win lots more tournaments and probably a major or two during a career that will probably see him leading the Champions Tour some day.

I haven’t seen much of Charl Schwartzel but I have a feeling this guy is a player. Expect him to keep charging up the rankings. Lee Westwood is a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s very good, but there’s something missing or maybe just out of place. I have a feeling that 2012 will be a make or break year for him. Quiros is like a lot of the young guns on the U.S. tour. He hits the ball a mile. No, make that a mile and a half. But, you need more than distance to win the big ones.

Last, but not least, can you believe that Sergio Garcia finished 8th on the 2011 European Money List? I can’t. Here’s a guy who had it all, lost it all and now seems to be on a comeback. Sergio’s reappearance, the original Sergio not the brooding one, would be great for golf. I hope he keeps coming, he’s good for the game.

Besides Tiger, what’s going to happen in the US? I’m afraid that Phil’s best golf may be behind him now. I can’t help but feel that his atypical performance last year had a lot to do with his arthritis. That would be a shame, as he’s brought so much to the pro game. In many ways, he’s been the modern pro player most like Arnold Palmer – great with the fans and never afraid to take a chance. It might not be the way to be the best golfer in the world, but it sure is fun to watch. Here’s hoping that Phil can somehow pull out another Major. If he does, his best bet is the Masters.

It’s hard to make heads or tails out of the rest of the U.S. Pro Tour. Just when you think someone is going to breakout, they fall back, sometimes because of injury, sometimes because of partying and sometimes because golf is an impossible game to be consistently good at. Remember how good Sean O’Hair looked a couple of years ago? Since then, like Anthony Kim, it’s hard to find him on a leaderboard.

And then there are guys you never heard of the previous year who come on like world beaters! The guys that have some momentum from last year are Webb Simpson, Nick Watney, Bill Haas, Keegan Bradley, Dustin Johnson and Matt Kucher. Kuch had a pretty good year in 2011, but nothing like 2010. But, then, how could he? He was driven to show the world that he could be one of the Tour’s best. But I think he’s too nice a guy and too much a family man to drive himself to go further every year. He’ll win, but not as much. I hope he gets a major.

Dustin Johnson is such an athletic talent, but could he be too athletic for golf? I know that’s blasphemy to some, but I do think it’s true. Tiger’s a great athlete, but he’s different in that he was focused on golf from the beginning. I’m not sure that if you play a lot of other sports for a long time that you can dominate golf the way Tiger has. I can’t give you facts to back that up, but there’s something about a purely athletic swing that doesn’t lend itself to the limits that a good golf swing has to have. It does make for some amazing distance. Dustin will win, and he might even get a major but he’s going to have to change something to be the next superstar, but what?

Simpson, Watney, Bradley and Haas, now there’s some real golf talent, but do they have the intangibles to become great – meaning win more than one Major. Simpson and Bradley had such good years in 2011 that they’re the kind you think might become the next Tiger or Phil, but there’s always the possibility they become the next disappearing act. It’s hard to know what separates the two.

And then there’s a whole raft of guys who can play and play well, but maybe not consistently enough to ever dominate. I’m talking about guys like Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, Justin Rose, and Hunter Mahan. I’d bet that Watson, Rose and Mahan will continue pretty much as they have, with Bubba falling off some. Woodland is another young guy who can hit the ball a mile, which puts him into the thick of things on some courses, but that may mean a career with only a couple of wins in the long run, but enough to make him a multimillionaire anyway.

I’ll wrap up with two comeback cases in the vein of Sergio, namely Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker. Both made considerable progress in rejuvenating their games in 2011. You can only hope it leads to even better things in 2012, but golf is a fickle game. Just ask yourself! Whatever happens, 2012 looks to be one of the most interesting pro golf seasons in quite a while. I wonder if there’s anything in the Mayan Calendar about that?

Related posts:

1. Predictions Based On British Open Interviews
2. How Good Are Today’s PGA Tour Pros?
3. Pro Tour Starts ’09 In Lackluster Fashion
4. Tiger Wins On Nationwide Tour!
5. US Tour Young Guns MIA

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